Oil, Iran, and the metals dilemma: The automotive industry faces new dependencies
The automotive world this spring of 2026 is being buffeted by headwinds. Between explosive geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and questionable manufacturer strategies, the future of our mobility has never been more complex. At Rolicar, we analyze these signals to help you understand where the market is headed.
1. The specter of an oil shock: Iran and Europe
Current tensions in Iran and instability in the Strait of Hormuz pose a direct threat to the supply of hydrocarbons. If the flow of oil is disrupted for an extended period, prices at the pump could reach historic highs in Switzerland. For owners of internal combustion engine vehicles, the stakes become financial: electric vehicles then appear as a lifeline to preserve their mobility budget.
2. Behind the Scenes: Dependence on Strategic Metals
This is where the debate becomes more nuanced. Certainly, electric vehicles free us from dependence on Iranian or Russian oil. But to manufacture the batteries for our cars, we fall into another dependency, perhaps even riskier: that of critical metals (lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths).
The Refining Monopoly: The vast majority of battery components are refined in China. If geopolitical tensions spread to Asia, Europe could face a battery shortage or a surge in production costs.
Conflict zones: Cobalt, essential for energy density, comes largely from regions where political stability is virtually nonexistent.
The reality is troubling: By 2026, choosing between internal combustion and electric often means choosing between dependence on oil prices or dependence on lithium prices and the stability of Asian shipping routes.
3. The Porsche Case: When Strategy Clashes with Reality
Porsche perfectly illustrates this complexity. By betting on a 100% electric Macan in Europe, the Stuttgart-based company saw its profits decline in early 2026. Why? Because luxury car buyers, particularly in Switzerland, are pragmatic. They see global tensions and ask themselves: is it safer to have a gasoline engine that runs on expensive fuel, or a battery whose technology and components are controlled by distant powers? Porsche’s shrinking margins show that the market isn’t yet ready to give up the flexibility of internal combustion or hybrid engines.
4. Which engine should you choose in this climate of uncertainty?
Electric (EV): Ideal for local energy independence (if you have solar panels!), but vulnerable to global industrial supply crises.
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE): A safe haven due to its simplicity, but hostage to tensions in the Middle East.
Hybrid (PHEV): For many, this is the only coherent answer in 2026. It offers dual energy security by not putting “all its eggs in one basket.”
The Rolicar Analysis: Data to Guide Your Choice
At Rolicar, we see firsthand that these issues concern professionals and individuals alike. A lead for a hybrid car is much easier to convert today than it was two years ago. Buyers are looking for resilience.
Thanks to our software engineering and our understanding of these issues, our goal is to help salespeople position their vehicles in line with these global concerns. In 2026, we won’t just be selling “a car”; we’ll be selling a mobility solution tailored to the geopolitical context.
Conclusion: The End of Certainties
The situation in Iran reminds us that oil is a weapon. The crisis in electric components reminds us that batteries are too.
So, the debate is on:
Do you prefer dependence on oil or dependence on rare earth metals?
Is Porsche’s decline in profits a sign that we need to slow down on electric vehicles?
Your next vehicle is already on Rolicar.ch
Whether you choose the safety of electric or the range of internal combustion, we’re here to connect you with the best buyers.
